Super Bowl 58 Predictions

San Francisco faces Kansas City in Super Bowl 58. This is a rematch of Super Bowl 54.

Chris Ransom Last Updated: February 9, 2024.

1. San Francisco 49ers 14-5-0	Versus	3. Kansas City Chiefs 14-6-0

Chris Ransom's Pick

We're back for the 2023 NFL Season. You can follow our weekly predictions crew. Jesse Lucas won the first year in 2014-2015. Jason Bantle and myself now have two championships after I won the NFL Pickem Champion Trophy for most accurate predictions against the spread in 2020-2021 and had the most accurate NFL predictions again in 2022-2023. Oren Shiri, Tanya Holmes, and Wes Langley have one pickem title too back in 2021-2022. Send me your predictions on Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn to be eligible for prizes should you have a perfect week. You can also email me your season picks by emailing me at chris@draftutopia.com.

For the fourth year in a row Draft Utopia defeated the maintstream media in NFL Predictions. After I had the best record in 2020-2021 going 181-74-1, Wes Langley went 189-95-1 in 2021-2022. I went 190-92-3 in 2022-2023 allowing Draft Utopia to become the first sports website in the world to three peat in NFL predictions. Lisa Donovan secured first place on the year for 2023-2024 after going 4-2 in the wild card round meaning Draft Utopia has officially four peated in NFL Predictions.

Lisa Donovan is first in the 2023 Draft Utopia NFL Pickem Standings with a 198-86 record on the year heading into Super Bowl Sunday. Lisa has a eleven game lead over Emmy Bantle of Jason Bantle's Yahoo pool and Sue Stolenberg who are both tied for second in the country at 187-97. Jared Dublin is 186-98 remaining fourth in the country. Tyler Sullivan is now fifth in the country with a 182-100 record.

I am tied with Tyler Sullivan of CBS for fifth in the country at 183-101 after going 2-0 in Conference Champioship week. Correctly picking the Super Bowl winner gives me a third top five finish for NFL Predictions in the last four years.

Andrew Kermish is third in the 2023 Draft Utopia NFL Pickem Standings with a 175-109 record heading into Super Bowl 58. Andrew is thirteenth in the country.

Brian Bayless and Tanya Holmes are tied for fourth in the 2023 Draft Utopia NFL Pickem Standings with a 174-110 record on the year. Brian and Tanya are both tied for fourteenth in the country with Leo Sells of Gridiron Experts.

Jason Bantle is sixth in the 2023 Draft Utopia NFL Pickem Standings with a 173-111 record. Anakin's mom from Jason's Yahoo pool is tied with Jason for seventeenth in the country.

Wes Langley is seventh in the 2023 Draft Utopia NFL Pickem Standings with a 172-112 record. Wes is ninteenth in the country. Colleen Wolfe of NFL Network rounds out the top 20 with a 170-112 record.

Jesse Lucas is is eighth in the 2023 Draft Utopia NFL Pickem Standings with a 169-116 record and is twenty first in the country. Jesse was tied with Tracy Porter on the site, but moved ahead of him.

Tracy Porter is ninth in the 2023 Draft Utopia NFL Pickem Standings with a 168-117 record. Tracy is tied with Will Brinson of CBS and Seth Wickersham of ESPN for twenty third in the country with those three rounding out the top 25.

Oren Shiri is tenth in the 2023 Draft Utopia NFL Pickem Standings at 163-121 on the year. Oren is twenty ninth in the country.

Joseph Potter is eleventh in the 2023 Draft Utopia NFL Pickem Standings at 162-122 on the year. Joey is thirtieth in the country.

Why the San Francisco 49ers Will Win: Brock Purdy has a terrific offensive line with Trent Williams at left tackle, Aaron Banks left guard, Jake Brendel at center, Spencer Burford at right guard, and Colton McKivitz taking over for Mike McGlinchey at right tackle after learning under McGlinchey as his backup for three years. Brock Purdy needs to stay healthy because Sam Darnold is the backup. Jaylon Moore was suprisingly effective at times when filling in for Trent Williams as a backup left tackle over the last two years during the regular season, but struggled this year before Trent Williams returned in week 10 following San Francisco's week 9 bye week. Nick Zakelj will be the backup left guard to Aaron Brooks. Jon Feliciano can be a backup on the interior offensive line at both center and right guard. Matt Pryor, who was god awful with the Colts last year is the backup right tackle to Colton McKivitz which has to be somewhat concerning after Mike McGlinchey left San Francisco. Trent Williams missed practice on Wednesday, but Wednesday was his rest day. He's expected to practice fully tomorrow on Thursday leading up to Super Bowl 58.

San Francisco has Deebo Samuel as their flanker receiver, Brandon Aiyuk as their secondary receiver, and Jauan Jennings as their slot receiver. San Francisco has Ronnie Bell their 2023 seventh round pick out of Michigan as the number four wide receiver. Ray-Ray McCloud is the number five wide receiver on this depth chart. Chris Conley is the number six wide receiver on this depth chart after Danny Gray got placed on season ending injured reserve.

George Kittle is San Francisco's starting tight end. Kittle is still a top 5 tight end in the NFL and was the only tight end to exceed 1,000 receiving yards in 2023. George Kittle didn't pracice last week leading up to the Super Bowl and didn't practice on Wednesday due to a toe injury. George Kittle was a limited practice on Thursday and should play in Super Bowl 58.

San Francisco has Christian McCaffrey as their starting running back whose considered the best running back when fully healthy after dominating in 2022 following his trade from Carolina to San Francisco. Elijah Mitchell is their backup running back after starting some as a rookie in 2021. Jordan Mason is the third string running back. San Francisco 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk is the best fullback in the NFL. San Francisco has the best running back, fullback, and depth of any team in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers 4-3 right end Nick Bosa wants to be the leagues highest paid defensive player. Nick Bosa, the second overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft out of Ohio State won 2022 NFL Defensive Player Of The Year. Nick Bosa will start at 4-3 right end with Clellin Ferrell starting at 4-3 left end. Randy Gregory is the backup 4-3 right end and Chase Young is the backup 4-3 left end after San Francisco traded for Chase Young at the 2023 NFL Trade Deadline.

Drake Jackson began the year starting next to Nick Bosa at 4-3 left end, but got placed on injured reserve in week 10. Clellin Ferrell did not practice this week and is out for the Divisional Round.

We don't know whether Randy Gregory or Chase Young will start next to Nick Bosa with both Clellin Ferrell and Drake Jackson inactive. My guess is Chase Young will end up starting next to Nick Bosa, but both Young and Gregory need to step up to take pressure off of Bosa if San Francisco wants to get back to the NFC Championship.

Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead are the starters at 4-3 defensive tackle for San Francisco. Javon Kinlaw, San Francisco's 2020 first round pick who started for three years after replacing DeForest Buckner out of South Carolina is now a backup defensive tackle. Kevin Givens one of San Francisco's backup defensive tackles last year is remains the number four defensive tackle on this depth chart.

San Francisco has Dre Greenlaw at 4-3 right outside linebacker and Fred Warner at 4-3 middle linebacker. These two start in these respective roles regardless of whether San Francisco runs a 4-3 base defense or a 4-2-5 nickel defense. Oren Burks will start at 4-3 left outside linebacker, but will be the backup 4-3 outside linebacker in 4-2-5 packages. Dee Winters, San Francisco's 2023 sixth round pick out of TCU that I had a third round grade on actually won a backup linebacker job where he will be a backup to Greenlaw in 4-3 packages and a backup to Warner at middle linebacker in 4-2-5 packages. Jalen Graham, San Francisco's 2023 seventh round pick out of Purdue will be the backup 4-3 left outside linebacker to Oren Burks and would only play situationally on 4-3 plays if something happened to Burks. Both Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner got injured against Minnesota in week 7.

San Francisco has Charvarius Ward at field cornerback, Ambry Thomas, San Francisco's 2021 third round pick at boundary cornerback, and Deommodore Lenoir at nickel cornerback. Isaiah Oliver is the dime cornerback. Darrell Luter Jr., San Francisco's 2023 fifth round pick from South Alabama is the quarter cornerback.

Ji'Ayir Brown, San Francisco's 2023 third round pick is starting in relief of Talona Hufanga at strong safety with Tashaun Gipson returning at free safety for his second season in San Francisco thanks to Talona Hufanga tearing his ACL.

San Francisco has Jake Moody their 2023 third round pick out of Michigan starting at kicker. Mitch Wishnowsky is San Francisco's punter after being a 2019 fourth round pick after the former Utah punter won the Ray Guy Award in 2018. Ray-Ray McCloud remains the return specialist at kick returner and punt returner for San Francisco.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs Will Win: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has Donovan Smith at left tackle, Joe Thuney at left guard, Creed Humprhey at center, Trey Smith at right guard, and Jawaan Taylor starting at right tackle. Donovan Smith has been inactive since week 13 with Kansas City Chiefs 2023 third round pick Wanya Morris playing left tackle the past five games. Wanya Morris suffered a concussion in week 18, but the good news for Kansas City is that Donovan Smith has been a full practice and his playoff experience that he had during Tampa Bay's run to Super Bowl 55 where Tampa Bay dethroned the Super Bowl 54 Champion Kansas City Chiefs will be on display this weekend against a team that has their top three pass rushers all out with injuries.

Outside of Donovan Smith at left tackle, I trust the rest of the offensive linemen in these roles even though offensive tackle is finally a weakness for Kansas City after being a strength for Patrick Mahomes during his first five NFL seasons as a starting quarterback. Lucas Niang, Kansas City's 2020 third round pick who once started in his second year before having a tedious injury history is now Kansas City's swing tackle if something happens to Smith or Taylor thanks to Morris being in concussion protocol. Nick Allegretti is the backup left guard to Joe Thuney, the backup center to Creed Humphrey, and the backup right guard to Trey Smith. He's stepped in whenever someone on this interior offensive line has missed a few plays. Unlike last year when Thuney and Smith each missed a game during Kansas City's run to Super Bowl 57, Kansas City's interior offensive line has been fully healthy for the most part this season.

Joe Thuney looks like he will be out. Kansas City will be getting Wanya Morris back. Kansas City will have Donovan Smith at left tackle, Nick Allegretti filling in for Joe Thuney at left guard, Creed Humphrey at center, Trey Smith at right guard, Jawaan Taylor at right tackle.

Kansas City will most likely have the same offensive line lineup for Super Bowl 58 that they had for the AFC Championship with Kansas City will have Donovan Smith at left tackle, Nick Allegretti filling in for Joe Thuney at left guard, Creed Humphrey at center, Trey Smith at right guard, Jawaan Taylor at right tackle. Nobody on this offensive line outsid eof Nick Allegretti has allowed a sack through three playoff games with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City has Rashee Rice, Skyy Moore, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as their top three wide receivers when fully healthy. Rashee Rice, the 2023 second round pick out of SMU has asserted himself as the flanker wide receiver on the Kansas City Chiefs becoming the number one wide receiver for Patrick Mahomes as a rookie really stepping up down the stretch. He's probably better served a number two receiver down the road if the Kansas City Chiefs upgrade at wide receiver in a very deep and top heavy 2024 NFL Draft at wide receiver, but Rice got the job done as a number one wide receiver this season as a rookie.

Skyy Moore got promoted from slot receiver as a rookie to the number two wide receiver after stepping up in a big way during Super Bowl 57 as a rookie. Skyy Moore got placed on injured reserve the day after Kansas City defeated New England in week 15 making Moore ineligible to play from weeks 16 to the wild card round of this years NFL Playoffs with Moore being eligible to return next week if the Kansas City Chiefs advance. Skyy Moore did not play in the wild card round, and has already been ruled out for the Divsional Round game. Skyy Moore is unlikely to play in the AFC Championship game.

Justin Watson whose been the most consistent situational big play threat off of the bench in random situations has been the number two wide receiver in relief of Skyy Moore the past three weeks. This is largely due to the fact that both Marquez Valdes-Scanting and Kadarius Toney last years number two receiver that complimented JuJu Smith-Schuster during Mahomes MVP season have both dropped enough passes to get benched. Unforunately, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is Kansas City's slot receiver this week due to his injuries and will probably remain in that role for the rest of this season once Skyy Moore returns due to how much he's getting paid.

Justyn Ross and Mecole Hardman are both listed as backups on the Kansas City Chiefs depth chart as the number five and number six wide receivers, but can come in and catch passes off the bench situationally like Justin Watson's done the last two years. Kansas City's seventh and only third string wide receiver at the moment is Ritchie James. This is mainly due to Skyy Moore being on injured reserve, but Skyy Moore got activated off of injured reserve.

Kansas City will have Rashee Rice at flanker wide receiver, Skyy Moore will be the secondary wide receiver, and Justin Watson as the slot receiver. Kansas City will also have Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Justyn Ross as backups on this depth chart. Mecole Hardman and Ritchie James are third string wide receivers and if either is active, they would likely be a return specialist.

Travis Kelce is the best tight end in the NFL as well as the main receiving target option on this offense despite being a tight end. He's also dating Taylor Swift, but I'd rather preview the game even though I am happy for Travis. Travis Kelce had eight conseuctive seasons over 1,000 receiving yards putting together his worst NFL season since his rookie year. Travis Kelce could have a signature game at tight end especially if strong safety Jevon Holland and free safety DeShon Elliott, Miami's two starting safeties both get ruled inactive after playing through injuries in week 18. Travis Kelce's last game with over 90 receiving yards was week 12 against the Raiders with his last receiving touchdown coming in week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles. Kelce actually averaged 20.2 yards per catch in week 13. Kelce played well in week 14 despite not getting in the end zone nearly winning the game on a trick play versus the Buffalo Bills on the day Frank Wycheck passed away.

Travis Kelce is the biggest playmaker on this offense. He isn't the only impact player on this offense. Noah Gray has three years of experience as a number two tight end and is currently on the third year of his four year rookie contract. Blake Bell is the third string tight end. Matt Bushman got called up from the practice squad to be the third string tight end after Kelce's injury, but will probably get sent back down to the practice squad.

Isiah Pacheco is the starting running back. Kansas City has Jerick McKinnon as the backup running back and Clyde Edwards-Helaire as their third string running back. Kansas City got Isiah Pacheco back in week 17 despite placing Jerrick McKinnon on injured reserve leading up to that game. Kansas City will have Isiah Pacheco as their main running back with Kansas City Chiefs 2020 first round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the change of pace running back before Jerrick McKinnon returns. Right now, Lamichael Perine is the third string running back, but I expect Kansas City to release him once McKinnon is cleared to play. Jerrick McKinnon could return if Kansas City happens to make their sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game and would be back by Super Bowl 58 at the latest if Kansas City found a way to defend their AFC Title.

Isiah Pacheco has missed two practices in a row. Jerrick McKinnon is still on injured reserve. If both are ruled inactive, then Clyde Edwards-Helaire will get the start in the AFC Championship. Isiah Pacheco played in the AFC Championship and Jerrick McKinnon practiced in a limited capacity. There's a chance Jerrick McKinnon gets cleared to return from his injury meaning all three running backs could be at full health for Super Bowl 58.

Kansas City has Mike Danna at 4-3 right end. George Karlaftis Kansas City's 2022 first round pick from Purdue enters year two at 4-3 left end. Charles Omenihu is out for the year, so Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas City's 2023 first round pick is the backup 4-3 right end and rotational edge rusher in Super Bowl 58. Malik Herring woul be the fourth defensive end and the backup 4-3 left end. Kansas City is just as deep on the edge as they were a year ago despite letting Frank Clark walk.

Kansas City has Chris Jones and Derrick Nnadi the two starting 4-3 defensive tackles on their Super Bowl 54 and Super Bowl 57 teams back. Tershawn Wharton and Neil Farrell Jr. are the backup 4-3 defensive tackles. Kansas City added Isaiah Buggs the starting defensive tackle on the Detroit Lions to their practice squad after Detroit released Isaiah Buggs.

Derrick Nnadi got placed on season ending injured reserve prior to the AFC Championship. Tershawn Wharton started next to Chris Jones for the second week in a row, the Kansas City Chiefs All Pro defensive tackle. You also have Neil Farrell Jr. as the backup 4-3 defensive tackle and Isaiah Buggs would get promoted from the practice squad to be a fourth 4-3 defensive tackle for depth here. Chris Jones didn't practice on Wednesday leading up to Super Bowl 58, but played in the AFC Championship Game.

Kansas City has Willie Gay Jr. at 4-3 right outside linebacker, Nick Bolton at 4-3 middle linebacker, and Leo Chenal at 4-3 left outside linebacker. Kansas City has three quality starters at linebacker that can defend the run and drop back into coverage. When Kansas City runs 4-2-5 nickel Willie Gay Jr. will be the starting outside linebacker with Nick Bolton as the middle linebacker. Leo Chenal would be the backup outside linebacker to Willie Gay Jr. while former Los Angeles Chargers starter Drue Tranquill will serve as a backup to Nick Bolton. Cam Jones a undrafted linebacker out of Indiana did well enough to make Kansas City's second team as a backup and showed some promise in week 18, so that's a guy to watch moving forward. Willie Gay Jr. should be back after dealing with an injury in the last two playoff games against Buffalo and Baltimore as he practiced in a limited capacity leading up to Super Bowl 58.

Kansas City has Trent McDuffie at field cornerback, L'Jarius Sneed at boundary cornerback, Justin Reid at strong safety, and Bryan Cook their 2022 second round pick taking over for Juan Thornhill at free safety. Jaylen Watson is playing at nickel cornerback, Joshua Williams is playing at dime cornerback, and Darius Rush the rookie cornerback out of South Carolina as a quarter cornerback give the Kansas City Chiefs the depth at cornerback to limit opposing wide receivers from making big plays as Rush had a top 100 grade in the late third to early fourth round before being waived by the Indianapolis Colts. Kansas City also has Nic Jones their 2023 seventh round pick out of Ball State who impressed me on tape and the interview process before making the Chiefs 53 man roster. Mike Edwards the Tampa Bay Buccaneers strong safety from last year is the backup strong safety to Justin Reid with 2023 fourth round pick Chamarri Conner moving over from cornerback to free safety. Kansas City listed Darius Rush, and Nic Jones as inactives at cornerback relying on their top 4 cornerbacks from last years Super Bowl 57 roster.

After Ja'Marr Chase called Bryan Cook just another guy on injured reserve, he got cleared to play prior to week 17. Kansas City has had their best 11 defensive players on the field for four games this season against Denver in week 6, the Los Angeles Chargers in week 7, the Cincinnati Bengals in week 17, the Los Angeles Chargers in week 18 where Andy Reid rested his starters on offense, but played his starters on defense, and in the wild card round against Miami. Kansas City is 5-0 in those games with their defense giving up 17 points or less in all five of those contests. This is why injury reports and constantly studying the team depth charts weekly trumps momentum because if you talk about the Chiefs being sixth in pass defense, but in the bottom five in turnover margin from Kansas City's miscues on offense, getting fumble recoveries, or interceptions you aren't taking the health of the Kansas City Chiefs defense as a team into account when picking a winner solely based on whose got more momentum.

Kansas City should have everyone outside of Charles Omenihu and Derrick Nnadi healthy enough for Super Bowl 58. Kansas City has allowed the fourth fewest points of any team in the history of the NFL Playoffs allowing only 13.7 points per game in three playoff games. Only the 2000-2001 Baltimore Ravens Defense which allowed 5.8 points per game, the 2002-2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense which allowed 12.3 points per game, and the 2013-2014 Seattle Seahawks Defense which allowed 13.3 points per game are the only three NFL defenses in NFL History to allow fewer points per game than the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City has Harrison Butker at kicker. Kansas City also has Tommy Townsend at punter. Ritchie James is the return specialist at kick returner and punt returner.

Bill Vinovich is the referee in this years Super Bowl. He also called Super Bowl 54, the last Super Bowl between these two teams. San Francisco is 6-10 All Time in games officiated by Bill Vinovich. Kansas City is 11-3 in games officiated by Bill Vinovich dating back to 2013 when Andy Reid became the Kansas City Chiefs head coach.

Prediction: San Francisco is a 1.5 point favorite at -1.5. The over or under is 47.5 with 76% of the public betting on Kansas City. The money line is -130 for San Francisco and +110 for Kansas City. I like Kansas City to win and cover with the over at +110. Bet $190 on this game for Kansas City and win up to $300 as long as the 49ers win by 1 or less.

Final Score Chiefs 31 49ers 28 2 OT